{
  "schemaVersion": 2,
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-15",
  "cohortStart": "2026-07-01",
  "cohortEnd": "2026-08-15",
  "censoredAt": "2026-09-15",
  "observableThroughDay": 27,
  "method": {
    "estimator": "Kaplan-Meier",
    "duration": "Last confirmed sighting of the posting on the employer's own careers page minus its first sighting, in whole days.",
    "cohort": "Postings first seen 2026-07-01 to 2026-08-15 whose first sighting was within 3 days of their posted date. The long-tail tier is first seen 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-15.",
    "censoring": "Postings still listed at the last sweep are right-censored at 2026-09-15.",
    "sampling": "The two tiers cut at day 27 are estimated from a 20% table sample, and estimatedPostings is that sample scaled by 5. The long-tail tier uses every matching posting. atRisk is counted in the rows actually measured.",
    "observationLimit": "Workday drops every 'Posted 30+ Days Ago' row from the listing JobShifu reads, Apple's careers walker has a fixed 30-day cutoff, and Amazon's listing is page-capped, so those providers stop being observed at about 30 days whatever the employer's own window is. Day 27 is the last day every provider is observable, and the two broad tiers stop there.",
    "bias": "Workday is about 70% of the all-sources sample and under-reads live postings even inside 30 days, so the all-sources tier likely understates survival. The tier built from boards read whole likely sits nearer the truth.",
    "longTail": "Greenhouse, Ashby and Lever boards with a 60-day window only: about 3,770 postings, skewed toward technology employers. Few postings are still at risk past day 40."
  },
  "tiers": [
    {
      "key": "all_direct_sources",
      "label": "All direct employer sources",
      "description": "Every direct employer source JobShifu crawls. Dominated by Workday, which under-reads, so this tier likely understates survival.",
      "firstSeenFrom": "2026-07-01",
      "firstSeenTo": "2026-08-15",
      "sampleRows": 230306,
      "sampleRate": 0.2,
      "estimatedPostings": 1151530,
      "lastDay": 27,
      "curve": [
        {
          "day": 0,
          "survival": 0.9624,
          "atRisk": 230306
        },
        {
          "day": 1,
          "survival": 0.9476,
          "atRisk": 221642
        },
        {
          "day": 2,
          "survival": 0.9323,
          "atRisk": 218239
        },
        {
          "day": 3,
          "survival": 0.9147,
          "atRisk": 214717
        },
        {
          "day": 4,
          "survival": 0.896,
          "atRisk": 210659
        },
        {
          "day": 5,
          "survival": 0.8786,
          "atRisk": 206343
        },
        {
          "day": 6,
          "survival": 0.853,
          "atRisk": 202336
        },
        {
          "day": 7,
          "survival": 0.8289,
          "atRisk": 196445
        },
        {
          "day": 8,
          "survival": 0.8161,
          "atRisk": 190899
        },
        {
          "day": 9,
          "survival": 0.8028,
          "atRisk": 187951
        },
        {
          "day": 10,
          "survival": 0.7895,
          "atRisk": 184900
        },
        {
          "day": 11,
          "survival": 0.7761,
          "atRisk": 181836
        },
        {
          "day": 12,
          "survival": 0.758,
          "atRisk": 178730
        },
        {
          "day": 13,
          "survival": 0.732,
          "atRisk": 174582
        },
        {
          "day": 14,
          "survival": 0.7111,
          "atRisk": 168573
        },
        {
          "day": 15,
          "survival": 0.6983,
          "atRisk": 163780
        },
        {
          "day": 16,
          "survival": 0.6856,
          "atRisk": 160816
        },
        {
          "day": 17,
          "survival": 0.6737,
          "atRisk": 157894
        },
        {
          "day": 18,
          "survival": 0.6613,
          "atRisk": 155166
        },
        {
          "day": 19,
          "survival": 0.6464,
          "atRisk": 152311
        },
        {
          "day": 20,
          "survival": 0.6286,
          "atRisk": 148878
        },
        {
          "day": 21,
          "survival": 0.6154,
          "atRisk": 144775
        },
        {
          "day": 22,
          "survival": 0.6048,
          "atRisk": 141737
        },
        {
          "day": 23,
          "survival": 0.5944,
          "atRisk": 139289
        },
        {
          "day": 24,
          "survival": 0.5838,
          "atRisk": 136886
        },
        {
          "day": 25,
          "survival": 0.5729,
          "atRisk": 134457
        },
        {
          "day": 26,
          "survival": 0.5558,
          "atRisk": 131949
        },
        {
          "day": 27,
          "survival": 0.5558,
          "atRisk": 128007
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "reliable_whole_board_ats",
      "label": "Boards read whole",
      "description": "Greenhouse, Ashby, iCIMS, SuccessFactors and Taleo boards, which are read in full on every sweep. The most reliable tier.",
      "firstSeenFrom": "2026-07-01",
      "firstSeenTo": "2026-08-15",
      "sampleRows": 36132,
      "sampleRate": 0.2,
      "estimatedPostings": 180660,
      "lastDay": 27,
      "curve": [
        {
          "day": 0,
          "survival": 0.986,
          "atRisk": 36132
        },
        {
          "day": 1,
          "survival": 0.9808,
          "atRisk": 35625
        },
        {
          "day": 2,
          "survival": 0.9743,
          "atRisk": 35438
        },
        {
          "day": 3,
          "survival": 0.9677,
          "atRisk": 35205
        },
        {
          "day": 4,
          "survival": 0.9594,
          "atRisk": 34964
        },
        {
          "day": 5,
          "survival": 0.9488,
          "atRisk": 34665
        },
        {
          "day": 6,
          "survival": 0.9339,
          "atRisk": 34282
        },
        {
          "day": 7,
          "survival": 0.9186,
          "atRisk": 33744
        },
        {
          "day": 8,
          "survival": 0.9106,
          "atRisk": 33191
        },
        {
          "day": 9,
          "survival": 0.9035,
          "atRisk": 32900
        },
        {
          "day": 10,
          "survival": 0.8948,
          "atRisk": 32646
        },
        {
          "day": 11,
          "survival": 0.8858,
          "atRisk": 32331
        },
        {
          "day": 12,
          "survival": 0.8712,
          "atRisk": 32007
        },
        {
          "day": 13,
          "survival": 0.8568,
          "atRisk": 31477
        },
        {
          "day": 14,
          "survival": 0.8393,
          "atRisk": 30957
        },
        {
          "day": 15,
          "survival": 0.8295,
          "atRisk": 30326
        },
        {
          "day": 16,
          "survival": 0.8191,
          "atRisk": 29972
        },
        {
          "day": 17,
          "survival": 0.809,
          "atRisk": 29596
        },
        {
          "day": 18,
          "survival": 0.7971,
          "atRisk": 29230
        },
        {
          "day": 19,
          "survival": 0.7851,
          "atRisk": 28802
        },
        {
          "day": 20,
          "survival": 0.77,
          "atRisk": 28368
        },
        {
          "day": 21,
          "survival": 0.7571,
          "atRisk": 27820
        },
        {
          "day": 22,
          "survival": 0.7475,
          "atRisk": 27355
        },
        {
          "day": 23,
          "survival": 0.7364,
          "atRisk": 27010
        },
        {
          "day": 24,
          "survival": 0.7238,
          "atRisk": 26608
        },
        {
          "day": 25,
          "survival": 0.7101,
          "atRisk": 26152
        },
        {
          "day": 26,
          "survival": 0.6886,
          "atRisk": 25659
        },
        {
          "day": 27,
          "survival": 0.6886,
          "atRisk": 24882
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "long_tail_60_day_boards",
      "label": "Greenhouse, Ashby and Lever, 60-day boards",
      "description": "Postings first seen 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-15 on Greenhouse, Ashby and Lever boards with a 60-day window, followed to day 42. A smaller, technology-skewed sample.",
      "firstSeenFrom": "2026-08-01",
      "firstSeenTo": "2026-08-15",
      "sampleRows": 3770,
      "sampleRate": 1,
      "estimatedPostings": 3770,
      "lastDay": 42,
      "curve": [
        {
          "day": 0,
          "survival": 0.983,
          "atRisk": 3770
        },
        {
          "day": 1,
          "survival": 0.9767,
          "atRisk": 3706
        },
        {
          "day": 2,
          "survival": 0.9663,
          "atRisk": 3682
        },
        {
          "day": 3,
          "survival": 0.9358,
          "atRisk": 3643
        },
        {
          "day": 4,
          "survival": 0.9191,
          "atRisk": 3528
        },
        {
          "day": 5,
          "survival": 0.9109,
          "atRisk": 3465
        },
        {
          "day": 6,
          "survival": 0.8966,
          "atRisk": 3434
        },
        {
          "day": 7,
          "survival": 0.8822,
          "atRisk": 3380
        },
        {
          "day": 8,
          "survival": 0.8721,
          "atRisk": 3326
        },
        {
          "day": 9,
          "survival": 0.8666,
          "atRisk": 3288
        },
        {
          "day": 10,
          "survival": 0.856,
          "atRisk": 3267
        },
        {
          "day": 11,
          "survival": 0.8467,
          "atRisk": 3227
        },
        {
          "day": 12,
          "survival": 0.8385,
          "atRisk": 3192
        },
        {
          "day": 13,
          "survival": 0.8273,
          "atRisk": 3161
        },
        {
          "day": 14,
          "survival": 0.8172,
          "atRisk": 3119
        },
        {
          "day": 15,
          "survival": 0.8106,
          "atRisk": 3081
        },
        {
          "day": 16,
          "survival": 0.8056,
          "atRisk": 3056
        },
        {
          "day": 17,
          "survival": 0.7981,
          "atRisk": 3037
        },
        {
          "day": 18,
          "survival": 0.7865,
          "atRisk": 3009
        },
        {
          "day": 19,
          "survival": 0.7793,
          "atRisk": 2965
        },
        {
          "day": 20,
          "survival": 0.7634,
          "atRisk": 2938
        },
        {
          "day": 21,
          "survival": 0.7517,
          "atRisk": 2878
        },
        {
          "day": 22,
          "survival": 0.7398,
          "atRisk": 2834
        },
        {
          "day": 23,
          "survival": 0.7318,
          "atRisk": 2789
        },
        {
          "day": 24,
          "survival": 0.7255,
          "atRisk": 2759
        },
        {
          "day": 25,
          "survival": 0.7172,
          "atRisk": 2735
        },
        {
          "day": 26,
          "survival": 0.7074,
          "atRisk": 2704
        },
        {
          "day": 27,
          "survival": 0.6944,
          "atRisk": 2667
        },
        {
          "day": 28,
          "survival": 0.6833,
          "atRisk": 2618
        },
        {
          "day": 29,
          "survival": 0.6777,
          "atRisk": 2576
        },
        {
          "day": 30,
          "survival": 0.6698,
          "atRisk": 2555
        },
        {
          "day": 31,
          "survival": 0.6647,
          "atRisk": 2524
        },
        {
          "day": 32,
          "survival": 0.657,
          "atRisk": 2420
        },
        {
          "day": 33,
          "survival": 0.6485,
          "atRisk": 1997
        },
        {
          "day": 34,
          "survival": 0.6386,
          "atRisk": 1708
        },
        {
          "day": 35,
          "survival": 0.624,
          "atRisk": 1484
        },
        {
          "day": 36,
          "survival": 0.617,
          "atRisk": 1249
        },
        {
          "day": 37,
          "survival": 0.6035,
          "atRisk": 1099
        },
        {
          "day": 38,
          "survival": 0.5967,
          "atRisk": 1070
        },
        {
          "day": 39,
          "survival": 0.5891,
          "atRisk": 1017
        },
        {
          "day": 40,
          "survival": 0.5846,
          "atRisk": 788
        },
        {
          "day": 41,
          "survival": 0.5765,
          "atRisk": 579
        },
        {
          "day": 42,
          "survival": 0.5707,
          "atRisk": 393
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "supersedes": {
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-08",
    "reason": "The earlier snapshot measured every direct source together past day 27 and reported a 28-day median. That curve was a crawler artifact: providers that stop being observed at about 30 days froze last sightings near day 30, producing a drop the market never had."
  }
}